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NEROCA vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

NEROCA
NEROCA
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
11/23/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 6Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

NEROCA31%
×Draw27%
Real Kashmir42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEROCA
1.15
Real Kashmir
1.37

Real Kashmir creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

creates per match

NEROCA
1.14
Real Kashmir
1.12

allows per match

NEROCA
1.61
Real Kashmir
1.15

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par
Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Real Kashmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw
58%
NEROCA or Real Kashmir
73%
Draw or Real Kashmir
69%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+
13%
Real Kashmir wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals
68%
NEROCA 2+ goals
32%
NEROCA 3+ goals
11%
Real Kashmir 1+ goals
75%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
40%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)
43%
Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NEROCA scores more
31%
level
27%
Real Kashmir scores more
42%

Real Kashmir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEROCA vs Real Kashmir

Real Kashmir beat NEROCA 4-0 in I-League on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.