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Real Kashmir vs Mohun Bagan — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mohun Bagan
Mohun Bagan
1/5/2020I-LeagueI-League · Round 6TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground (Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Kashmir25%
×Draw24%
Mohun Bagan50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.10
Mohun Bagan
1.65

Mohun Bagan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 7 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.63
Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.15
Mohun Bagan
0.57

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
50%
Real Kashmir or Mohun Bagan
76%
Draw or Mohun Bagan
75%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
10%
Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
67%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
30%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
10%
Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
81%
Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
49%
Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
34%
Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Mohun Bagan defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
25%
level
24%
Mohun Bagan scores more
50%

Mohun Bagan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Kashmir vs Mohun Bagan

Mohun Bagan beat Real Kashmir 2-0 in I-League on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground (Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir).