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Mohun Bagan vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Mohun Bagan
Mohun Bagan
CANC
00:00
Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
4/4/2020I-LeagueI-League · Round 21Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mohun Bagan52%
×Draw24%
Real Kashmir24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohun Bagan
1.69
Real Kashmir
1.06

Mohun Bagan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mohun Bagan
2.22
Real Kashmir
1.12

allows per match

Mohun Bagan
1.00
Real Kashmir
1.15

finishing

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohun Bagan ↓

Real Kashmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mohun Bagan or draw
76%
Mohun Bagan or Real Kashmir
76%
Draw or Real Kashmir
48%

Winning margin

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
28%
Real Kashmir wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
82%
Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
50%
Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
24%
Real Kashmir 1+ goals
65%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
29%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
69%
Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohun Bagan attack 2.22 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mohun Bagan scores more
52%
level
24%
Real Kashmir scores more
24%

Mohun Bagan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mohun Bagan host Real Kashmir

April 4, 2020: Mohun Bagan take on Real Kashmir in I-League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mohun Bagan host Real Kashmir at Kalyani Stadium (Kalyani).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.