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Real Kashmir vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
11/28/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 7TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Real Kashmir44%
×Draw25%
Inter Kashi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.57
Inter Kashi
1.27

Real Kashmir creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.62
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.16
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
69%
Real Kashmir or Inter Kashi
75%
Draw or Inter Kashi
56%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
22%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
79%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
46%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
21%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
72%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
36%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
59%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.62 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + Real Kashmir defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
44%
level
25%
Inter Kashi scores more
31%

Real Kashmir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Kashmir vs Inter Kashi

Real Kashmir beat Inter Kashi 4-0 in I-League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir.