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Inter Kashi vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
2/24/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 17Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi46%
×Draw23%
Real Kashmir31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Kashi
1.75
Real Kashmir
1.41

Inter Kashi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 60 away

creates per match

Inter Kashi
2.35
Real Kashmir
1.12

allows per match

Inter Kashi
1.70
Real Kashmir
1.15

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par
Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Real Kashmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw
69%
Inter Kashi or Real Kashmir
77%
Draw or Real Kashmir
54%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+
24%
Real Kashmir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals
83%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
52%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
25%
Real Kashmir 1+ goals
76%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
41%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
59%
Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Kashi scores more
46%
level
23%
Real Kashmir scores more
31%

Inter Kashi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Inter Kashi 1–1 Real Kashmir

Inter Kashi and Real Kashmir drew 1-1 in I-League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.