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Real Kashmir vs Delhi FC — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Delhi FC
Delhi FC
12/4/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 3TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Real Kashmir47%
×Draw23%
Delhi FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.79
Delhi FC
1.40

Real Kashmir creates 28% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 23 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.63
Delhi FC
1.65

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.15
Delhi FC
1.96

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

Delhi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
70%
Real Kashmir or Delhi FC
77%
Draw or Delhi FC
53%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
25%
Delhi FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
83%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
53%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
26%
Delhi FC 1+ goals
75%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
41%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
61%
Delhi FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.79

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
47%
level
23%
Delhi FC scores more
30%

Real Kashmir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Kashmir vs Delhi FC

Real Kashmir beat Delhi FC 2-1 in I-League on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir.