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Delhi FC vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Delhi FC
Delhi FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
12/24/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 12Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Delhi FC31%
×Draw26%
Real Kashmir43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delhi FC
1.16
Real Kashmir
1.41

Real Kashmir creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 59 away

creates per match

Delhi FC
1.17
Real Kashmir
1.12

allows per match

Delhi FC
1.70
Real Kashmir
1.15

finishing

Delhi FC+0.00on par
Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delhi FC ↓

Real Kashmir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Delhi FC or draw
57%
Delhi FC or Real Kashmir
74%
Draw or Real Kashmir
69%

Winning margin

Delhi FC wins by 2+
13%
Real Kashmir wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Delhi FC 1+ goals
69%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
32%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
11%
Real Kashmir 1+ goals
76%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
41%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Delhi FC (draw refunded)
42%
Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delhi FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delhi FC attack 1.17 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Delhi FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Delhi FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Real Kashmir scores more
43%

Real Kashmir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delhi FC vs Real Kashmir

Delhi FC beat Real Kashmir 1-0 in I-League on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.