Real Jaén 2–0 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Carlos Fernández 59'

Mario Martos 50'

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Real Jaén64%

×Draw21%

Polideportivo Almería15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.83

Real Jaén

1.99

Polideportivo Almería

0.83

Real Jaén creates 140% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 63 away

2.12

creates per match

0.84

0.82

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

85%

Real Jaén or Polideportivo Almería

79%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

36%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

39%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

86%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

59%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

32%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

56%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

20%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

81%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.99

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Jaén scores more

64%

level

21%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

15%

Real Jaén at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Fernando Rodríguez← Urtzi Iriondo

46'

Montiel← Joselillo

50'

Mario Martos

55'

Joselu← A. El Baroudi

59'

Carlos Fernández

60'

Linares← Josema

60'

Luis Torres← Córdoba

65'

Joselu

66'

Juanpe← Migue García

66'

Miguel Cancelo← Mario Martos

74'

Fernando Carralero← Dani Garzón

74'

Campanas← Pablo Checa

80'

Pablo Díaz← Álvaro Muñiz

Real

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Martos

▼

Joselillo

Manager: Roberto Peragón

46'▲Fernando Rodríguez←▼Urtzi Iriondo

46'▲Montiel←▼Joselillo

66'▲Juanpe←▼Migue García

66'▲Miguel Cancelo←▼Mario Martos

80'▲Pablo Díaz←▼Álvaro Muñiz

Real Jaén substitutes

RodríguezMontielJuanpeCanceloDíaz

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

55'▲Joselu←▼A. El Baroudi

60'▲Linares←▼Josema

60'▲Luis Torres←▼Córdoba

74'▲Fernando Carralero←▼Dani Garzón

74'▲Campanas←▼Pablo Checa

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

JoseluLinaresTorresCarraleroCampanas