Polideportivo Almería 1–3 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Real Jaén

Pablo Checa 28'

Mauro Cabello 65'

José Espín 57'

Óscar Lozano 25'

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería35%

×Draw28%

Real Jaén37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Polideportivo Almería

1.15

Real Jaén

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 93 away

1.26

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Real Jaén →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

63%

Polideportivo Almería or Real Jaén

72%

Draw or Real Jaén

65%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

14%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

68%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

32%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

11%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

70%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

34%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

48%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

35%

level

28%

Real Jaén scores more

37%

Real Jaén at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Óscar Lozano

28'

Pablo Checa

57'

José Espín

61'

Joselillo← Fernando Rodríguez

65'

Álvaro Cruz← Fernando Carralero

65'

J. Randal← Pablo Checa

65'

Mauro Cabello

73'

A. El Baroudi← Linares

78'

Córdoba← Dani Garzón

78'

Luis Torres← Edu Pla

79'

Adrián Ruiz← Adri Paz

79'

Miguel Cancelo← Óscar Lozano

89'

Diego García← David León

89'

Montiel← Mario Martos

Polideportivo

Real

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Checa

Félix

Rosa

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

65'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Fernando Carralero

65'▲J. Randal←▼Pablo Checa

73'▲A. El Baroudi←▼Linares

78'▲Córdoba←▼Dani Garzón

78'▲Luis Torres←▼Edu Pla

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

CruzRandalBaroudiCórdobaTorres

Manager: Emilio Fajardo

61'▲Joselillo←▼Fernando Rodríguez

79'▲Adrián Ruiz←▼Adri Paz

79'▲Miguel Cancelo←▼Óscar Lozano

89'▲Diego García←▼David León

89'▲Montiel←▼Mario Martos

Real Jaén substitutes

JoselilloRuizCanceloGarcíaMontiel