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Real Jaén vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Real Jaén58%
×Draw24%
Mancha Real17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
1.64
Mancha Real
0.77

Real Jaén creates 113% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 79 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
83%
Real Jaén or Mancha Real
76%
Draw or Mancha Real
42%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
32%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
81%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
49%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
23%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
54%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
18%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
77%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Jaén scores more
58%
level
24%
Mancha Real scores more
17%

Real Jaén at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Jaén vs Mancha Real

Real Jaén beat Mancha Real 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.