Mancha Real 2–2 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Mancha Real

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Jaén

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mancha Real41%

×Draw28%

Real Jaén31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mancha RealExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Mancha Real

1.27

Real Jaén

1.05

Mancha Real creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 93 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Mancha Real

1.50

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Mancha Real

0.95

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mancha Real+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mancha Real ↓

Real Jaén →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mancha Real or draw

69%

Mancha Real or Real Jaén

72%

Draw or Real Jaén

59%

Winning margin

Mancha Real wins by 2+

19%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mancha Real 1+ goals

72%

Mancha Real 2+ goals

36%

Mancha Real 3+ goals

14%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

65%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

28%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mancha Real (draw refunded)

57%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mancha Real at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mancha Real attack 1.50 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Mancha Real defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mancha Real scores more

41%

level

28%

Real Jaén scores more

31%

Mancha Real at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mancha Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Real Jaén

Mancha Real and Real Jaén drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud in Mancha Real.

Mancha Real vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mancha Real vs Real Jaén