Real Jaén 1–4 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Linares Deportivo

Juanca González 54'

Isra 90+5'

Rosendo Alarcon 33'

Iván Aguilar 16'

Gabri Cortés 13' (OG)

1/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Jaén38%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.44

Real Jaén

1.46

Linares Deportivo

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 14 away

2.12

creates per match

2.07

0.82

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

63%

Real Jaén or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

62%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

18%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

77%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

43%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

18%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

76%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

42%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

51%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Jaén scores more

38%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

37%

Real Jaén at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Gabri CortésOwn goal

16'

Iván Aguilar

33'

Rosendo Alarcon

54'

Juanca González

67'

Isra← Cervera

77'

Álvaro Chumilla← Fran Vela

77'

Alejandro Marcelo← Jorge Vela

79'

A. Araiza← Iván Aguilar

87'

Jesús Sosa← Ramón Ruiz

88'

Joan Grasa← Rosendo Alarcon

90+5'

Isra

Real

Linares

▼

⚽

▼

Aguilar

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Alberto González

77'▲Álvaro Chumilla←▼Fran Vela

77'▲Alejandro Marcelo←▼Jorge Vela

87'▲Jesús Sosa←▼Ramón Ruiz

Real Jaén substitutes

ChumillaMarceloSosa

Manager: Juan Arsenal

67'▲Isra←▼Cervera

79'▲A. Araiza←▼Iván Aguilar

88'▲Joan Grasa←▼Rosendo Alarcon

Linares Deportivo substitutes

IsraAraizaGrasa