Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Linares Deportivo vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
CANC
22:00
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 38Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo57%
×Draw26%
Real Jaén18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.55
Real Jaén
0.74

Linares Deportivo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
2.07
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.33
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
82%
Linares Deportivo or Real Jaén
74%
Draw or Real Jaén
43%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
30%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
79%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
46%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
20%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
52%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
17%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
76%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
57%
level
26%
Real Jaén scores more
18%

Linares Deportivo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linares Deportivo face Real Jaén (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with Linares Deportivo hosting Real Jaén. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Linares Deportivo host Real Jaén at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.