Real Jaén 3–1 Huétor Vega: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Huétor Vega

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Real Jaén57%

×Draw24%

Huétor Vega20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchHuétor Vega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.93

Real Jaén

1.75

Huétor Vega

0.93

Real Jaén creates 88% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 109 away

2.12

creates per match

1.04

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Huétor Vega

1.04

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Huétor Vega

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Huétor Vega →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

80%

Real Jaén or Huétor Vega

76%

Draw or Huétor Vega

43%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

32%

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

83%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

52%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

25%

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

61%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

24%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

74%

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.75

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Jaén scores more

57%

level

24%

Huétor Vega scores more

20%

Real Jaén at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff