Huétor Vega 1–0 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Huétor Vega

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Jaén

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Huétor Vega37%

×Draw28%

Real Jaén35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Huétor Vega

1.23

Real Jaén

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

1.43

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Real Jaén →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

65%

Huétor Vega or Real Jaén

72%

Draw or Real Jaén

63%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

16%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

71%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

35%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

13%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

69%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

33%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

52%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

37%

level

28%

Real Jaén scores more

35%

Huétor Vega at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff