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Real Jaén vs Estepona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estepona
Estepona
5/1/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 5Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Jaén63%
×Draw22%
Estepona15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
1.81
Estepona
0.73

Real Jaén creates 148% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Estepona
0.64

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Estepona
1.50

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Estepona+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Estepona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
85%
Real Jaén or Estepona
78%
Draw or Estepona
37%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
37%
Estepona wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
84%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
54%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
27%
Estepona 1+ goals
52%
Estepona 2+ goals
17%
Estepona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
81%
Estepona (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Estepona away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Estepona defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Estepona attack 0.64 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Jaén scores more
63%
level
22%
Estepona scores more
15%

Real Jaén at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Real Jaén 1–0 Estepona

Real Jaén beat Estepona 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.