Estepona 0–1 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Estepona

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Jaén

Álvaro Sánchez 90+3'

6/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona30%

×Draw27%

Real Jaén43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteponaExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.36

Estepona

1.08

Real Jaén

1.36

Real Jaén creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.57

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Estepona

1.14

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Estepona

1.57

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Real Jaén →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estepona or draw

57%

Estepona or Real Jaén

73%

Draw or Real Jaén

70%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+

12%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals

66%

Estepona 2+ goals

29%

Estepona 3+ goals

10%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

74%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

39%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)

41%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Estepona scores more

30%

level

27%

Real Jaén scores more

43%

Real Jaén at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

De la Calzada← Diego Barrios

53'

Juan Carlos← Pekes

58'

Álex Ros← S. Pishvaie

63'

Álvaro Sánchez← Fran Hernández

67'

Rengel← Javi Ocaña

79'

Óscar Zorrilla← C. Taoualy

80'

Sergio Martín← Manuel Morilla

90+3'

Álvaro Sánchez

Estepona

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Lucas Cazorla

58'▲Álex Ros←▼S. Pishvaie

67'▲Rengel←▼Javi Ocaña

80'▲Sergio Martín←▼Manuel Morilla

Estepona substitutes

RosRengelMartín

Manager: Juan Arsenal

46'▲De la Calzada←▼Diego Barrios

53'▲Juan Carlos←▼Pekes

63'▲Álvaro Sánchez←▼Fran Hernández

79'▲Óscar Zorrilla←▼C. Taoualy

Real Jaén substitutes

CalzadaCarlosSánchezZorrilla

Match Recap: Estepona vs Real Jaén

Real Jaén beat Estepona 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on June 6, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro Sánchez (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.

Estepona vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Estepona vs Real Jaén