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Real Jaén vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Real Jaén56%
×Draw23%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
1.79
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0.99

Real Jaén creates 81% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
79%
Real Jaén or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
77%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
44%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
32%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
83%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
53%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
63%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
73%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Jaén scores more
56%
level
23%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
21%

Real Jaén at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Real Jaén 2–0 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Real Jaén beat Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.