Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–1 Real Jaén

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Jaén

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno44%

×Draw27%

Real Jaén29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.40

Real Jaén

1.07

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 31% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

1.77

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.77

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Real Jaén →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw

71%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Real Jaén

73%

Draw or Real Jaén

56%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

21%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

75%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

41%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

17%

Real Jaén 1+ goals

66%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

29%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

61%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

44%

level

27%

Real Jaén scores more

29%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff