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Real Jaén vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Real Jaén
Real Jaén
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
3/30/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Jaén85%
×Draw10%
Atlético Melilla5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Jaén
3.15
Atlético Melilla
0.65

Real Jaén creates 385% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Jaén
2.12
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Real Jaén
0.82
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw
95%
Real Jaén or Atlético Melilla
90%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
15%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+
67%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals
96%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
81%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
59%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
48%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
14%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)
95%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.15

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Real Jaén scores more
85%
level
10%
Atlético Melilla scores more
5%

Real Jaén at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Jaén vs Atlético Melilla

Real Jaén beat Atlético Melilla 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio La Victoria in Jaén.