Atlético Melilla 0–1 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Atlético Melilla

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Jaén

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Melilla21%

×Draw27%

Real Jaén52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MelillaExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.43

Atlético Melilla

0.81

Real Jaén

1.43

Real Jaén creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

0.59

creates per match

1.15

1.71

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Atlético Melilla

0.59

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Atlético Melilla

1.71

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Melilla ↓

Real Jaén →

0–011%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Melilla or draw

48%

Atlético Melilla or Real Jaén

73%

Draw or Real Jaén

79%

Winning margin

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

Real Jaén wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

56%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

19%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

76%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

42%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

29%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Melilla at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Melilla attack 0.59 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Atlético Melilla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Melilla scores more

21%

level

27%

Real Jaén scores more

52%

Real Jaén at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Melilla vs Real Jaén

Real Jaén beat Atlético Melilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.

Atlético Melilla vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Melilla vs Real Jaén