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Real Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
7/29/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso60%
×Draw23%
Comerciantes Unidos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.83
Comerciantes Unidos
0.87

Real Garcilaso creates 110% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
83%
Real Garcilaso or Comerciantes Unidos
77%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
40%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
35%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
84%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
54%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
28%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
58%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
22%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
77%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.83

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
60%
level
23%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
17%

Real Garcilaso at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 1 – 0 Comerciantes Unidos

Real Garcilaso beat Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 in Primera División on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.