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Comerciantes Unidos vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
10/23/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos42%
×Draw27%
Real Garcilaso31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.36
Real Garcilaso
1.13

Comerciantes Unidos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 39 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.14
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.29
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
69%
Comerciantes Unidos or Real Garcilaso
73%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
58%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
20%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
74%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
39%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
16%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
68%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
31%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
57%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.14 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
42%
level
27%
Real Garcilaso scores more
31%

Comerciantes Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Real Garcilaso

Comerciantes Unidos beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on October 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Distrito de Cutervo.