Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Garcilaso vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
10/14/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso51%
×Draw26%
Cesar Vallejo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.53
Cesar Vallejo
0.93

Real Garcilaso creates 65% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 98 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Cesar Vallejo
1.00

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Cesar Vallejo
1.38

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
77%
Real Garcilaso or Cesar Vallejo
74%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
49%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
26%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
78%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
45%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
20%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
61%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
24%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
69%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
51%
level
26%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
23%

Real Garcilaso at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 2 – 0 Cesar Vallejo

Real Garcilaso beat Cesar Vallejo 2-0 in Primera División on October 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.