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Cesar Vallejo vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
4/27/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cesar Vallejo52%
×Draw25%
Real Garcilaso23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.56
Real Garcilaso
0.93

Cesar Vallejo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 39 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
77%
Cesar Vallejo or Real Garcilaso
75%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
48%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
27%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
79%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
46%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
21%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
61%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
24%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
70%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
52%
level
25%
Real Garcilaso scores more
23%

Cesar Vallejo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs Real Garcilaso

Cesar Vallejo beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.