Real Garcilaso 1–0 Carlos A. Mannucci

Real Garcilaso

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlos A. Mannucci

8/16/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso52%

×Draw25%

Carlos A. Mannucci23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real GarcilasoExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Real Garcilaso

1.64

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.00

Real Garcilaso creates 64% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 95 away

1.69

creates per match

1.16

0.85

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Real Garcilaso

1.69

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.16

allows per match

Real Garcilaso

0.85

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw

77%

Real Garcilaso or Carlos A. Mannucci

75%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

48%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

28%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

81%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

49%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

23%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

63%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

26%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

69%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more

52%

level

25%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

23%

Real Garcilaso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff