Carlos A. Mannucci 0–1 Real Garcilaso

Carlos A. Mannucci

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Garcilaso

3/2/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Mario Orezzole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci43%

×Draw27%

Real Garcilaso30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos A. MannucciExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.36

Real Garcilaso

1.10

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 24% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 39 away

1.13

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.13

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.24

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw

70%

Carlos A. Mannucci or Real Garcilaso

73%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

57%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

20%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

74%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

39%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

16%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

67%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

30%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

59%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

43%

level

27%

Real Garcilaso scores more

30%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff