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Real Garcilaso vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
5/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso55%
×Draw24%
Ayacucho FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.71
Ayacucho FC
0.96

Real Garcilaso creates 78% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 104 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Ayacucho FC
1.06

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Ayacucho FC
1.74

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
79%
Real Garcilaso or Ayacucho FC
76%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
45%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
30%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
82%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
51%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
24%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
62%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
25%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
72%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.74 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ayacucho FC attack 1.06 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
55%
level
24%
Ayacucho FC scores more
21%

Real Garcilaso at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 3 – 0 Ayacucho FC

Real Garcilaso beat Ayacucho FC 3-0 in Primera División on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.