Ayacucho FC 1–1 Real Garcilaso: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Garcilaso

11/25/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ayacucho FC48%

×Draw25%

Real Garcilaso27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Ayacucho FC

1.56

Real Garcilaso

1.10

Ayacucho FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 39 away

1.54

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.54

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.24

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

73%

Ayacucho FC or Real Garcilaso

75%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

52%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

25%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

79%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

46%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

21%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

67%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

30%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

64%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Real Garcilaso scores more

27%

Ayacucho FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff