Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Universidad — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
9/2/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso56%
×Draw24%
Alianza Universidad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.74
Alianza Universidad
0.94

Real Garcilaso creates 85% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 62 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Alianza Universidad
1.02

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Alianza Universidad
1.79

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Alianza Universidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
80%
Real Garcilaso or Alianza Universidad
76%
Draw or Alianza Universidad
44%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
31%
Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
82%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
52%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
25%
Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
61%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
24%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
73%
Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alianza Universidad attack 1.02 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
56%
level
24%
Alianza Universidad scores more
20%

Real Garcilaso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Real Garcilaso 0–1 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Universidad beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.