Alianza Universidad 2–1 Real Garcilaso

Alianza Universidad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Garcilaso

3/17/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Alianza Universidad42%

×Draw27%

Real Garcilaso31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Alianza Universidad

1.33

Real Garcilaso

1.09

Alianza Universidad creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 39 away

1.07

creates per match

0.97

1.21

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.21

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

69%

Alianza Universidad or Real Garcilaso

73%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

58%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

19%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

74%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

38%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

15%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

66%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

30%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

58%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.07 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

42%

level

27%

Real Garcilaso scores more

31%

Alianza Universidad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff