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Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
4/7/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso46%
×Draw27%
Alianza Lima27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.39
Alianza Lima
1.01

Real Garcilaso creates 38% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 151 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
73%
Real Garcilaso or Alianza Lima
73%
Draw or Alianza Lima
54%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
22%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
75%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
40%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
64%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
27%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
63%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.39

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
46%
level
27%
Alianza Lima scores more
27%

Real Garcilaso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Garcilaso 2 – 1 Alianza Lima

Real Garcilaso beat Alianza Lima 2-1 in Primera División on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.