Alianza Lima 1–0 Real Garcilaso: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Garcilaso

9/22/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Alianza Lima57%

×Draw24%

Real Garcilaso19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchReal Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.87

Alianza Lima

1.71

Real Garcilaso

0.87

Alianza Lima creates 97% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 39 away

1.83

creates per match

0.97

0.77

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.83

Real Garcilaso

0.97

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.77

Real Garcilaso

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Real Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

81%

Alianza Lima or Real Garcilaso

76%

Draw or Real Garcilaso

43%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

32%

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

82%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

51%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

24%

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals

58%

Real Garcilaso 2+ goals

22%

Real Garcilaso 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

75%

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

57%

level

24%

Real Garcilaso scores more

19%

Alianza Lima at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff