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Real Frontera vs Atletico el Vigia FC — Segunda División 2018

Real Frontera
Real Frontera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
J. Restrepo Alvarez 81'
Johandry Hidalgo 67'
P. Duran 45'
L. Arenas 5'
3/7/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Real Frontera47%
×Draw25%
Atletico el Vigia FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Frontera
1.54
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.13

Real Frontera creates 36% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Real Frontera
1.36
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.97

allows per match

Real Frontera
1.28
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.72

finishing

Real Frontera+0.00on par
Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Frontera ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Frontera or draw
72%
Real Frontera or Atletico el Vigia FC
75%
Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC
53%

Winning margin

Real Frontera wins by 2+
24%
Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Frontera 1+ goals
79%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
45%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
20%
Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
68%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
31%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Frontera (draw refunded)
63%
Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Frontera at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Frontera attack 1.36 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + Real Frontera defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Frontera scores more
47%
level
25%
Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
28%

Real Frontera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Frontera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. Arenas
45'
P. Duran
67'
Johandry Hidalgo
81'
J. Restrepo Alvarez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real Frontera 3–1 Atletico el Vigia FC

Real Frontera beat Atletico el Vigia FC 3-1 in Segunda División on March 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Arenas (5'), P. Duran (45'), Johandry Hidalgo (67'), J. Restrepo Alvarez (81').