Atletico el Vigia FC 0–1 Real Frontera

Atletico el Vigia FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Frontera

5/3/2026

Segunda División · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Atletico el Vigia FC45%

×Draw25%

Real Frontera30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico el Vigia FCExpected goals in this matchReal Frontera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.58

Real Frontera

1.25

Atletico el Vigia FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.50

Real Frontera

1.29

allows per match

Atletico el Vigia FC

1.20

Real Frontera

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico el Vigia FC ↓

Real Frontera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico el Vigia FC or draw

70%

Atletico el Vigia FC or Real Frontera

75%

Draw or Real Frontera

55%

Winning margin

Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+

23%

Real Frontera wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals

79%

Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals

47%

Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals

21%

Real Frontera 1+ goals

71%

Real Frontera 2+ goals

36%

Real Frontera 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)

60%

Real Frontera (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico el Vigia FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 1.50 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico el Vigia FC scores more

45%

level

25%

Real Frontera scores more

30%

Atletico el Vigia FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico el Vigia FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff