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Real Estelí vs Orgánica Masachapa — Primera Division 2026

Real Estelí
Real Estelí
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
11/12/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 17Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Estelí71%
×Draw18%
Orgánica Masachapa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Estelí
2.25
Orgánica Masachapa
0.76

Real Estelí creates 196% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 18 away

creates per match

Real Estelí
2.06
Orgánica Masachapa
0.89

allows per match

Real Estelí
0.62
Orgánica Masachapa
2.44

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par
Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Orgánica Masachapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw
89%
Real Estelí or Orgánica Masachapa
82%
Draw or Orgánica Masachapa
29%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+
47%
Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals
89%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
65%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
39%
Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
53%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
18%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)
86%
Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.62 · 151 matches

Orgánica Masachapa away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.06 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.25

Orgánica Masachapa attack 0.89 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Real Estelí scores more
71%
level
18%
Orgánica Masachapa scores more
11%

Real Estelí at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Estelí vs Orgánica Masachapa

Real Estelí beat Orgánica Masachapa 2-0 in Primera Division on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Independencia in Estelí.