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Orgánica Masachapa vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2026

Orgánica Masachapa
Orgánica Masachapa
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
4/25/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Orgánica Masachapa22%
×Draw22%
Real Estelí56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgánica Masachapa
1.10
Real Estelí
1.89

Real Estelí creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 150 away

creates per match

Orgánica Masachapa
1.17
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

Orgánica Masachapa
2.11
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

Orgánica Masachapa+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgánica Masachapa ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orgánica Masachapa or draw
44%
Orgánica Masachapa or Real Estelí
78%
Draw or Real Estelí
78%

Winning margin

Orgánica Masachapa wins by 2+
8%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Orgánica Masachapa 1+ goals
67%
Orgánica Masachapa 2+ goals
30%
Orgánica Masachapa 3+ goals
10%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
85%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
56%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Orgánica Masachapa (draw refunded)
28%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgánica Masachapa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgánica Masachapa attack 1.17 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Orgánica Masachapa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orgánica Masachapa scores more
22%
level
22%
Real Estelí scores more
56%

Real Estelí at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orgánica Masachapa vs Real Estelí

Real Estelí beat Orgánica Masachapa 5-1 in Primera Division on April 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.