Real Estelí 2–0 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Real Estelí

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior Managua

L. Lopez 60'

J. Barrera 46'

5/2/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Estelí66%

×Draw21%

Junior Managua13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real EstelíExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.74

Real Estelí

1.94

Junior Managua

0.74

Real Estelí creates 162% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 18 away

2.09

creates per match

0.89

0.60

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Real Estelí

2.09

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Real Estelí

0.60

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw

87%

Real Estelí or Junior Managua

79%

Draw or Junior Managua

34%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+

40%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals

86%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

58%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

30%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

52%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

17%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

83%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.60 · 149 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.09 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.94

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Real Estelí defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Estelí scores more

66%

level

21%

Junior Managua scores more

13%

Real Estelí at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Barrera

60'

L. Lopez

62'

E. Narvaez← O. Soto

76'

L. Acuña← C. Chavarría

84'

M. Rosas← L. Lopez

84'

M. Zambrana← S. Castillo

87'

J. González← Á. Hernández

89'

Vítor Faísca← M. Lopez

Real

Junior

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Lopez

▼

Chavarría

Batiz

Manager: H. Flores

76'▲L. Acuña←▼C. Chavarría

84'▲M. Rosas←▼L. Lopez

89'▲Vítor Faísca←▼M. Lopez

Real Estelí substitutes

AcuñaRosasFaíscaAyerdisFoxBetancurKata

Manager: J. Ruíz

62'▲E. Narvaez←▼O. Soto

84'▲M. Zambrana←▼S. Castillo

87'▲J. González←▼Á. Hernández

Junior Managua substitutes

NarvaezZambranaGonzálezRománGarcíaEspinozaGuadamuz