Junior Managua 0–0 Real Estelí: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Estelí

9/13/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 8Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua23%

×Draw25%

Real Estelí52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchReal Estelí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.59

Junior Managua

0.96

Real Estelí

1.59

Real Estelí creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 145 away

0.89

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Real Estelí

1.68

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Real Estelí

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Real Estelí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

48%

Junior Managua or Real Estelí

75%

Draw or Real Estelí

77%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

8%

Real Estelí wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

62%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

25%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

7%

Real Estelí 1+ goals

80%

Real Estelí 2+ goals

47%

Real Estelí 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

31%

Real Estelí (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Estelí attack 1.68 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Junior Managua scores more

23%

level

25%

Real Estelí scores more

52%

Real Estelí at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Padilla← J. Carrion

46'

L. Acuña← E. Castillo

61'

J. Rosales← J. Baltodano

69'

S. Castillo← M. Cruz

71'

A. Somarriba← B. Ayerdis

76'

J. Betancur← H. García

Junior

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Acevedo

46'▲S. Padilla←▼J. Carrion

61'▲J. Rosales←▼J. Baltodano

69'▲S. Castillo←▼M. Cruz

Junior Managua substitutes

PadillaRosalesCastilloTéllezNarvaezLópezGomez

Manager: H. Flores

46'▲L. Acuña←▼E. Castillo

71'▲A. Somarriba←▼B. Ayerdis

76'▲J. Betancur←▼H. García

Real Estelí substitutes

AcuñaSomarribaBetancurPazLópezPérezPalacios