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Real Estelí vs Jalapa — Primera Division 2026

Real Estelí
Real Estelíadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jalapa
Jalapa
5/7/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Real Estelí67%
×Draw20%
Jalapa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Estelí
2.06
Jalapa
0.77

Real Estelí creates 168% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 129 away

creates per match

Real Estelí
2.07
Jalapa
0.91

allows per match

Real Estelí
0.62
Jalapa
2.06

finishing

Real Estelí+0.00on par
Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Estelí ↓

Jalapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Estelí or draw
87%
Real Estelí or Jalapa
80%
Draw or Jalapa
33%

Winning margin

Real Estelí wins by 2+
42%
Jalapa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Estelí 1+ goals
87%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
61%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
34%
Jalapa 1+ goals
54%
Jalapa 2+ goals
18%
Jalapa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Estelí (draw refunded)
84%
Jalapa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Estelí at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.62 · 150 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Estelí attack 2.07 + Jalapa defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Real Estelí defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Estelí scores more
67%
level
20%
Jalapa scores more
13%

Real Estelí at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Real Estelí 3–1 Jalapa

Real Estelí beat Jalapa 3-1 in Primera Division on May 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Independencia.