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Jalapa vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2026

Jalapa
Jalapa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
5/2/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Jalapa35%
×Draw28%
Real Estelí38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jalapa
1.17
Real Estelí
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 150 away

creates per match

Jalapa
1.30
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

Jalapa
0.79
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw
62%
Jalapa or Real Estelí
72%
Draw or Real Estelí
65%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+
14%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals
69%
Jalapa 2+ goals
33%
Jalapa 3+ goals
11%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
71%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
35%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)
48%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jalapa scores more
35%
level
28%
Real Estelí scores more
38%

Real Estelí at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Jalapa 0–0 Real Estelí

Jalapa and Real Estelí drew 0-0 in Primera Division on May 2, 2026.