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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Manaus FC — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manaus FC
Manaus FC
5/25/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes25%
×Draw24%
Manaus FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
1.10
Manaus FC
1.68

Manaus FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Manaus FC
1.29

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Manaus FC
1.41

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Manaus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Manaus FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
49%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Manaus FC
76%
Draw or Manaus FC
75%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
9%
Manaus FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
67%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
30%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
10%
Manaus FC 1+ goals
81%
Manaus FC 2+ goals
50%
Manaus FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
33%
Manaus FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Manaus FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Manaus FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Manaus FC attack 1.29 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
25%
level
24%
Manaus FC scores more
51%

Manaus FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Manaus FC

Real Desportivo Ariquemes and Manaus FC drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia).