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Manaus FC vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Manaus FC
Manaus FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
5/18/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Ismael Benigno (Manaus, Amazonas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Manaus FC70%
×Draw18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manaus FC
2.33
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.86

Manaus FC creates 171% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Manaus FC
1.78
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Manaus FC
1.00
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Manaus FC+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manaus FC ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Manaus FC or draw
88%
Manaus FC or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
82%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
30%

Winning margin

Manaus FC wins by 2+
47%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manaus FC 1+ goals
90%
Manaus FC 2+ goals
67%
Manaus FC 3+ goals
41%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
58%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
21%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manaus FC (draw refunded)
85%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manaus FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manaus FC attack 1.78 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.33

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Manaus FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Manaus FC scores more
70%
level
18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
12%

Manaus FC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Manaus FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Manaus FC 4–1 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Manaus FC beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 4-1 in Serie D on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Ismael Benigno (Manaus, Amazonas).