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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs CEOV Operário — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CEOV Operário
CEOV Operário
5/14/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes29%
×Draw26%
CEOV Operário45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
1.09
CEOV Operário
1.43

CEOV Operário creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
CEOV Operário
0.79

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
CEOV Operário
1.39

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
CEOV Operário+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

CEOV Operário →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
55%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or CEOV Operário
74%
Draw or CEOV Operário
71%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
11%
CEOV Operário wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
66%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
30%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
10%
CEOV Operário 1+ goals
76%
CEOV Operário 2+ goals
42%
CEOV Operário 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
39%
CEOV Operário (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

CEOV Operário away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + CEOV Operário defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

CEOV Operário attack 0.79 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
29%
level
26%
CEOV Operário scores more
45%

CEOV Operário at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CEOV Operário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Real Desportivo Ariquemes 0–2 CEOV Operário

CEOV Operário beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2-0 in Serie D on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.