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CEOV Operário vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

CEOV Operário
CEOV Operário
FT
9 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
7/15/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Dito Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CEOV Operário63%
×Draw20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CEOV Operário
2.12
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.99

CEOV Operário creates 114% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

CEOV Operário
1.36
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

CEOV Operário
1.25
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

CEOV Operário+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CEOV Operário ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CEOV Operário or draw
83%
CEOV Operário or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
80%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
37%

Winning margin

CEOV Operário wins by 2+
39%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CEOV Operário 1+ goals
88%
CEOV Operário 2+ goals
62%
CEOV Operário 3+ goals
35%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
63%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
26%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CEOV Operário (draw refunded)
79%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CEOV Operário at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CEOV Operário attack 1.36 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.12

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + CEOV Operário defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CEOV Operário scores more
63%
level
20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
17%

CEOV Operário at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CEOV Operário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CEOV Operário vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes

CEOV Operário beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 9-0 in Serie D on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dito Souza in Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso.