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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Ceilândia — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Ceilândia
Ceilândia
7/9/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes22%
×Draw24%
Ceilândia54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.96
Ceilândia
1.67

Ceilândia creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Ceilândia
1.26

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Ceilândia
1.12

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Ceilândia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Ceilândia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
46%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Ceilândia
76%
Draw or Ceilândia
78%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
7%
Ceilândia wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
62%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
25%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
7%
Ceilândia 1+ goals
81%
Ceilândia 2+ goals
50%
Ceilândia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
29%
Ceilândia (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Ceilândia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Ceilândia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ceilândia attack 1.26 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
22%
level
24%
Ceilândia scores more
54%

Ceilândia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Real Desportivo Ariquemes 0–7 Ceilândia

Ceilândia beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 7-0 in Serie D on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.