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Ceilândia vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Ceilândia
Ceilândia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
5/20/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceilândia72%
×Draw18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceilândia
2.19
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.69

Ceilândia creates 217% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ceilândia
1.50
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Ceilândia
0.65
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Ceilândia+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceilândia ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ceilândia or draw
90%
Ceilândia or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
82%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
28%

Winning margin

Ceilândia wins by 2+
47%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ceilândia 1+ goals
89%
Ceilândia 2+ goals
64%
Ceilândia 3+ goals
37%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
50%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
15%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ceilândia (draw refunded)
87%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceilândia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceilândia attack 1.50 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Ceilândia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ceilândia scores more
72%
level
18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
10%

Ceilândia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Ceilândia 3–0 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Ceilândia beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3-0 in Serie D on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia in Ceilândia, Distrito Federal.