Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Brasiliense — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brasiliense
Brasiliense
5/26/2021Serie DSerie D · Preliminary RoundEstádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes18%
×Draw24%
Brasiliense58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Brasiliense
1.68

Brasiliense creates 110% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Brasiliense
1.29

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Brasiliense
0.80

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Brasiliense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Brasiliense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
42%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Brasiliense
76%
Draw or Brasiliense
82%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
5%
Brasiliense wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
55%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
19%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
5%
Brasiliense 1+ goals
81%
Brasiliense 2+ goals
50%
Brasiliense 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
23%
Brasiliense (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Brasiliense away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Brasiliense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Brasiliense attack 1.29 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
18%
level
24%
Brasiliense scores more
58%

Brasiliense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Brasiliense

Brasiliense beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2-0 in Serie D on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.