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Brasiliense vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Brasiliense
Brasiliense
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
7/2/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brasiliense74%
×Draw16%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasiliense
2.42
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.75

Brasiliense creates 223% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Brasiliense
1.97
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Brasiliense
0.77
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Brasiliense+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasiliense ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brasiliense or draw
90%
Brasiliense or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
84%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
26%

Winning margin

Brasiliense wins by 2+
51%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brasiliense 1+ goals
91%
Brasiliense 2+ goals
69%
Brasiliense 3+ goals
43%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
53%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
17%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brasiliense (draw refunded)
88%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasiliense at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.77 · 60 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasiliense attack 1.97 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.42

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Brasiliense defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Brasiliense scores more
74%
level
16%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
10%

Brasiliense at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Brasiliense 5–1 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Brasiliense beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 5-1 in Serie D on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias in Taguatinga, Distrito Federal.