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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Anápolis — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Anápolis
Anápolis
7/23/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes21%
×Draw24%
Anápolis56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.96
Anápolis
1.75

Anápolis creates 82% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Anápolis
1.43

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Anápolis
1.11

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Anápolis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Anápolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
44%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Anápolis
76%
Draw or Anápolis
79%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
7%
Anápolis wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
62%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
25%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
7%
Anápolis 1+ goals
83%
Anápolis 2+ goals
52%
Anápolis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
27%
Anápolis (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Anápolis away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Anápolis defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Anápolis attack 1.43 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
21%
level
24%
Anápolis scores more
56%

Anápolis at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Anápolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Real Desportivo Ariquemes 0–8 Anápolis

Anápolis beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 8-0 in Serie D on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério in Ariquemes, Rondônia.